{
  "provenance": {
    "version": "1.0.0",
    "fixtureId": "at-forecast-lab-v1",
    "sourceUrl": "https://github.com/Technova-K02/numinous/blob/8e9458223e9dadf39428e362bb4f25947504cd0d/neurons/miner/agents/super_miner_v3.py#L384-L402",
    "aggregationUrl": "https://github.com/Technova-K02/numinous/blob/8e9458223e9dadf39428e362bb4f25947504cd0d/neurons/miner/agents/super_miner_v3.py#L384-L402",
    "mappingUrl": "https://github.com/Technova-K02/numinous/blob/8e9458223e9dadf39428e362bb4f25947504cd0d/neurons/miner/agents/super_miner_v3.py#L151-L157",
    "parserUrl": "https://github.com/Technova-K02/numinous/blob/8e9458223e9dadf39428e362bb4f25947504cd0d/neurons/miner/agents/super_miner_v3.py#L160-L201",
    "entrypointUrl": "https://github.com/Technova-K02/numinous/blob/8e9458223e9dadf39428e362bb4f25947504cd0d/neurons/miner/agents/super_miner_v3.py#L410-L442",
    "disclosure": {
      "en": "24 authored, fictional events. Anonymous forecast streams, computed locally. No model calls, real-world outcomes, or benchmark claims.",
      "ja": "24件の架空イベントと匿名の予測値を使うローカル計算です。モデル呼び出し、実世界の結果、ベンチマーク成績ではありません。"
    },
    "preparedInputs": {
      "en": "Inputs represent probabilities after preparation. The source parser also applies its band map before aggregation; this lab starts after that step and exposes the final map separately.",
      "ja": "入力は前処理後の確率です。元コードのパーサーも集約前に帯域変換を行います。このラボはその後から始め、最終変換を別に表示します。"
    },
    "scoring": {
      "en": "Brier score = mean((p − outcome)²); lower is better. Weighted and equal baselines use the same available inputs and events. No-input rows are excluded and counted. Each single-stream comparison uses its own paired event set.",
      "ja": "Brierスコアは (確率 − 結果)² の平均で、小さいほど良好です。加重平均と単純平均は同じ入力・イベントで比較します。入力なしの行は除外して件数を表示し、単独ストリームは対応する同一イベントで比較します。"
    },
    "split": {
      "en": "Two chronological slices of 12 events. No fitting, tuning, random generation, or training split is performed.",
      "ja": "時系列の2区間、各12件です。学習、調整、ランダム生成は行いません。"
    }
  },
  "events": [
    {
      "id": "F01",
      "slice": "01",
      "scenarioId": "disagreement",
      "title": {
        "en": "Canary: complete 30 minutes without rollback?",
        "ja": "カナリア：30分間ロールバックなしで完了するか？"
      },
      "cutoffAt": "2026-07-01T09:00:00Z",
      "resolvedAt": "2026-07-01T18:00:00Z",
      "evidence": {
        "en": "Latency remains inside the guardrail; one replica has unexplained memory growth.",
        "ja": "遅延は基準内ですが、1レプリカで原因不明のメモリ増加があります。"
      },
      "resolution": {
        "en": "The soak completes; memory plateaus after garbage collection. Outcome: yes.",
        "ja": "GC後にメモリが安定し、検証完了。結果：はい。"
      },
      "outcome": 1,
      "inputs": [
        {
          "id": "A",
          "probability": 0.77,
          "confidence": 0.9,
          "enabled": true
        },
        {
          "id": "B",
          "probability": 0.69,
          "confidence": 0.75,
          "enabled": true
        },
        {
          "id": "C",
          "probability": 0.29,
          "confidence": 0.65,
          "enabled": true
        },
        {
          "id": "D",
          "probability": 0.71,
          "confidence": 0.8,
          "enabled": true
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "F02",
      "slice": "01",
      "scenarioId": "consensus",
      "title": {
        "en": "Failover: fewer than 100 lost writes?",
        "ja": "切替：失われる書き込みは100件未満か？"
      },
      "cutoffAt": "2026-07-02T09:00:00Z",
      "resolvedAt": "2026-07-02T18:00:00Z",
      "evidence": {
        "en": "All forecasts rely on the same green replica dashboard, last refreshed 35 minutes ago.",
        "ja": "全予測が35分前に更新された同じ正常ダッシュボードに依存しています。"
      },
      "resolution": {
        "en": "The audit counts 286 lost writes after failover. Outcome: no.",
        "ja": "切替後の監査で286件の損失を確認。結果：いいえ。"
      },
      "outcome": 0,
      "inputs": [
        {
          "id": "A",
          "probability": 0.88,
          "confidence": 0.91,
          "enabled": true
        },
        {
          "id": "B",
          "probability": 0.84,
          "confidence": 0.87,
          "enabled": true
        },
        {
          "id": "C",
          "probability": 0.91,
          "confidence": 0.89,
          "enabled": true
        },
        {
          "id": "D",
          "probability": 0.86,
          "confidence": 0.86,
          "enabled": true
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "F03",
      "slice": "01",
      "scenarioId": "outlier",
      "title": {
        "en": "Index rebuild: finish by 18:00 UTC?",
        "ja": "索引再構築：18時UTCまでに完了するか？"
      },
      "cutoffAt": "2026-07-03T09:00:00Z",
      "resolvedAt": "2026-07-03T18:00:00Z",
      "evidence": {
        "en": "Three shards trail the schedule; one estimate extrapolates from the fastest shard alone.",
        "ja": "3シャードが遅延。1つの見積もりは最速シャードだけで外挿しています。"
      },
      "resolution": {
        "en": "The final shard finishes at 19:12 UTC. Outcome: no.",
        "ja": "最後のシャードは19時12分UTCに完了。結果：いいえ。"
      },
      "outcome": 0,
      "inputs": [
        {
          "id": "A",
          "probability": 0.27,
          "confidence": 0.8,
          "enabled": true
        },
        {
          "id": "B",
          "probability": 0.31,
          "confidence": 0.72,
          "enabled": true
        },
        {
          "id": "C",
          "probability": 0.29,
          "confidence": 0.7,
          "enabled": true
        },
        {
          "id": "D",
          "probability": 0.91,
          "confidence": 0.98,
          "enabled": true
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "F04",
      "slice": "01",
      "scenarioId": "dropout",
      "title": {
        "en": "Replay queue: fewer than 10,000 pending jobs?",
        "ja": "再実行キュー：残件数は1万件未満か？"
      },
      "cutoffAt": "2026-07-04T09:00:00Z",
      "resolvedAt": "2026-07-04T18:00:00Z",
      "evidence": {
        "en": "Drain rate exceeds arrivals; streams B and D fail to return usable responses.",
        "ja": "処理速度が到着速度を上回りますが、BとDは有効な応答を返しません。"
      },
      "resolution": {
        "en": "The cutoff snapshot at 18:00 records 7,240 pending jobs. Outcome: yes.",
        "ja": "18時の残件数は7,240件。結果：はい。"
      },
      "outcome": 1,
      "inputs": [
        {
          "id": "A",
          "probability": 0.73,
          "confidence": 0.8,
          "enabled": true
        },
        {
          "id": "B",
          "probability": 0.69,
          "confidence": 0.75,
          "enabled": false
        },
        {
          "id": "C",
          "probability": 0.82,
          "confidence": 0.7,
          "enabled": true
        },
        {
          "id": "D",
          "probability": 0.28,
          "confidence": 0.85,
          "enabled": false
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "F05",
      "slice": "01",
      "scenarioId": "floor",
      "title": {
        "en": "Retrieval audit: recall@20 at least 0.90?",
        "ja": "検索監査：recall@20は0.90以上か？"
      },
      "cutoffAt": "2026-07-05T09:00:00Z",
      "resolvedAt": "2026-07-05T18:00:00Z",
      "evidence": {
        "en": "The fixed audit corpus includes rare identifiers missing from the development sample.",
        "ja": "固定監査コーパスには開発サンプルにない珍しい識別子が含まれます。"
      },
      "resolution": {
        "en": "Measured fixture recall@20 is 0.84. Outcome: no.",
        "ja": "架空の監査結果はrecall@20が0.84。結果：いいえ。"
      },
      "outcome": 0,
      "inputs": [
        {
          "id": "A",
          "probability": 0.67,
          "confidence": 0,
          "enabled": true
        },
        {
          "id": "B",
          "probability": 0.31,
          "confidence": 0.04,
          "enabled": true
        },
        {
          "id": "C",
          "probability": 0.71,
          "confidence": 0.09,
          "enabled": true
        },
        {
          "id": "D",
          "probability": 0.29,
          "confidence": 0.6,
          "enabled": true
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "F06",
      "slice": "01",
      "scenarioId": "all-failed",
      "title": {
        "en": "Schema migration: zero write-path incidents?",
        "ja": "スキーマ移行：書き込み障害ゼロで完了するか？"
      },
      "cutoffAt": "2026-07-06T09:00:00Z",
      "resolvedAt": "2026-07-06T18:00:00Z",
      "evidence": {
        "en": "The backfill rehearsal passed; all four forecast requests are unavailable.",
        "ja": "事前の埋め戻し検証は成功。4件の予測リクエストはすべて利用不能です。"
      },
      "resolution": {
        "en": "The migration completes with no write-path incidents. Outcome: yes.",
        "ja": "書き込み障害なしで移行完了。結果：はい。"
      },
      "outcome": 1,
      "inputs": [
        {
          "id": "A",
          "probability": 0.7,
          "confidence": 0.8,
          "enabled": false
        },
        {
          "id": "B",
          "probability": 0.3,
          "confidence": 0.7,
          "enabled": false
        },
        {
          "id": "C",
          "probability": 0.8,
          "confidence": 0.8,
          "enabled": false
        },
        {
          "id": "D",
          "probability": 0.2,
          "confidence": 0.7,
          "enabled": false
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "F07",
      "slice": "01",
      "scenarioId": "disagreement",
      "title": {
        "en": "Cache rollout: p99 latency below 180 ms?",
        "ja": "キャッシュ展開：p99遅延は180ms未満か？"
      },
      "cutoffAt": "2026-07-07T09:00:00Z",
      "resolvedAt": "2026-07-07T18:00:00Z",
      "evidence": {
        "en": "Hit rate improves, but invalidation fan-out has only been tested at half peak traffic.",
        "ja": "ヒット率は改善。ただし無効化処理はピークの半分の負荷でしか検証されていません。"
      },
      "resolution": {
        "en": "Peak traffic yields p99 of 231 ms. Outcome: no.",
        "ja": "ピーク時のp99は231ms。結果：いいえ。"
      },
      "outcome": 0,
      "inputs": [
        {
          "id": "A",
          "probability": 0.71,
          "confidence": 0.75,
          "enabled": true
        },
        {
          "id": "B",
          "probability": 0.27,
          "confidence": 0.86,
          "enabled": true
        },
        {
          "id": "C",
          "probability": 0.68,
          "confidence": 0.78,
          "enabled": true
        },
        {
          "id": "D",
          "probability": 0.32,
          "confidence": 0.73,
          "enabled": true
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "F08",
      "slice": "01",
      "scenarioId": "consensus",
      "title": {
        "en": "Drain operation: clear all leased workers?",
        "ja": "停止処理：リース中のワーカーをすべて解放できるか？"
      },
      "cutoffAt": "2026-07-08T09:00:00Z",
      "resolvedAt": "2026-07-08T18:00:00Z",
      "evidence": {
        "en": "Each estimate reuses a runbook that omits the legacy lease-renewal service.",
        "ja": "全見積もりが旧リース更新サービスを省いた同じ手順書を再利用しています。"
      },
      "resolution": {
        "en": "A legacy renewal loop leaves 12 workers leased. Outcome: no.",
        "ja": "旧更新ループにより12ワーカーのリースが残存。結果：いいえ。"
      },
      "outcome": 0,
      "inputs": [
        {
          "id": "A",
          "probability": 0.83,
          "confidence": 0.84,
          "enabled": true
        },
        {
          "id": "B",
          "probability": 0.87,
          "confidence": 0.9,
          "enabled": true
        },
        {
          "id": "C",
          "probability": 0.85,
          "confidence": 0.85,
          "enabled": true
        },
        {
          "id": "D",
          "probability": 0.81,
          "confidence": 0.8,
          "enabled": true
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "F09",
      "slice": "01",
      "scenarioId": "outlier",
      "title": {
        "en": "CDC stream: lag below 60 seconds?",
        "ja": "CDCストリーム：遅延は60秒未満か？"
      },
      "cutoffAt": "2026-07-09T09:00:00Z",
      "resolvedAt": "2026-07-09T18:00:00Z",
      "evidence": {
        "en": "Catch-up capacity is available; one estimate assumes the earlier network fault persists.",
        "ja": "追いつく処理余力がありますが、1予測は以前のネットワーク障害が続くと想定しています。"
      },
      "resolution": {
        "en": "The evening snapshot records 24 seconds of lag. Outcome: yes.",
        "ja": "夕方の遅延は24秒。結果：はい。"
      },
      "outcome": 1,
      "inputs": [
        {
          "id": "A",
          "probability": 0.73,
          "confidence": 0.76,
          "enabled": true
        },
        {
          "id": "B",
          "probability": 0.76,
          "confidence": 0.82,
          "enabled": true
        },
        {
          "id": "C",
          "probability": 0.68,
          "confidence": 0.78,
          "enabled": true
        },
        {
          "id": "D",
          "probability": 0.08,
          "confidence": 0.99,
          "enabled": true
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "F10",
      "slice": "01",
      "scenarioId": "dropout",
      "title": {
        "en": "Batch inference: complete 50,000 items?",
        "ja": "バッチ推論：5万件を完了するか？"
      },
      "cutoffAt": "2026-07-10T09:00:00Z",
      "resolvedAt": "2026-07-10T18:00:00Z",
      "evidence": {
        "en": "The queue is moving, but GPU retries have risen; two forecast streams are unavailable.",
        "ja": "キューは進行中ですがGPU再試行が増加し、2件の予測が利用不能です。"
      },
      "resolution": {
        "en": "Only 41,906 items finish before the deadline. Outcome: no.",
        "ja": "期限までの完了は41,906件。結果：いいえ。"
      },
      "outcome": 0,
      "inputs": [
        {
          "id": "A",
          "probability": 0.69,
          "confidence": 0.7,
          "enabled": true
        },
        {
          "id": "B",
          "probability": 0.74,
          "confidence": 0.8,
          "enabled": false
        },
        {
          "id": "C",
          "probability": 0.31,
          "confidence": 0.92,
          "enabled": true
        },
        {
          "id": "D",
          "probability": 0.27,
          "confidence": 0.72,
          "enabled": false
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "F11",
      "slice": "01",
      "scenarioId": "floor",
      "title": {
        "en": "Checkpoint restore: recovery below 120 seconds?",
        "ja": "チェックポイント復元：120秒未満で復旧するか？"
      },
      "cutoffAt": "2026-07-11T09:00:00Z",
      "resolvedAt": "2026-07-11T18:00:00Z",
      "evidence": {
        "en": "The new checkpoint is compact; three streams explicitly report almost no confidence.",
        "ja": "新しいチェックポイントは小さく、3件の予測は自信がほぼゼロと明示しています。"
      },
      "resolution": {
        "en": "The timed restore takes 86 seconds. Outcome: yes.",
        "ja": "計測された復元時間は86秒。結果：はい。"
      },
      "outcome": 1,
      "inputs": [
        {
          "id": "A",
          "probability": 0.31,
          "confidence": 0.02,
          "enabled": true
        },
        {
          "id": "B",
          "probability": 0.69,
          "confidence": 0.08,
          "enabled": true
        },
        {
          "id": "C",
          "probability": 0.27,
          "confidence": 0,
          "enabled": true
        },
        {
          "id": "D",
          "probability": 0.77,
          "confidence": 0.67,
          "enabled": true
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "F12",
      "slice": "01",
      "scenarioId": "all-failed",
      "title": {
        "en": "Dependency upgrade: pass every integration check?",
        "ja": "依存更新：全統合チェックを通過するか？"
      },
      "cutoffAt": "2026-07-12T09:00:00Z",
      "resolvedAt": "2026-07-12T18:00:00Z",
      "evidence": {
        "en": "Unit checks passed; forecast calls all fail before a valid probability is available.",
        "ja": "単体チェックは成功。すべての予測呼び出しが有効な確率を返す前に失敗しています。"
      },
      "resolution": {
        "en": "A serialization incompatibility fails one integration check. Outcome: no.",
        "ja": "シリアライズ互換性により1件の統合チェックが失敗。結果：いいえ。"
      },
      "outcome": 0,
      "inputs": [
        {
          "id": "A",
          "probability": 0.68,
          "confidence": 0.7,
          "enabled": false
        },
        {
          "id": "B",
          "probability": 0.73,
          "confidence": 0.8,
          "enabled": false
        },
        {
          "id": "C",
          "probability": 0.29,
          "confidence": 0.6,
          "enabled": false
        },
        {
          "id": "D",
          "probability": 0.81,
          "confidence": 0.8,
          "enabled": false
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "F13",
      "slice": "02",
      "scenarioId": "disagreement",
      "title": {
        "en": "Embedding refresh: top-10 recall at least 0.85?",
        "ja": "埋め込み更新：top-10再現率は0.85以上か？"
      },
      "cutoffAt": "2026-08-01T09:00:00Z",
      "resolvedAt": "2026-08-01T18:00:00Z",
      "evidence": {
        "en": "A new tokenizer helps long documents while two estimates question code-symbol coverage.",
        "ja": "新トークナイザーは長文に有効ですが、2予測はコード記号の網羅性を懸念しています。"
      },
      "resolution": {
        "en": "The fixed evaluation set scores 0.88 recall. Outcome: yes.",
        "ja": "固定評価セットの再現率は0.88。結果：はい。"
      },
      "outcome": 1,
      "inputs": [
        {
          "id": "A",
          "probability": 0.79,
          "confidence": 0.83,
          "enabled": true
        },
        {
          "id": "B",
          "probability": 0.33,
          "confidence": 0.71,
          "enabled": true
        },
        {
          "id": "C",
          "probability": 0.71,
          "confidence": 0.9,
          "enabled": true
        },
        {
          "id": "D",
          "probability": 0.29,
          "confidence": 0.68,
          "enabled": true
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "F14",
      "slice": "02",
      "scenarioId": "consensus",
      "title": {
        "en": "Restore drill: finish within 20 minutes?",
        "ja": "復元訓練：20分以内に完了するか？"
      },
      "cutoffAt": "2026-08-02T09:00:00Z",
      "resolvedAt": "2026-08-02T18:00:00Z",
      "evidence": {
        "en": "Every stream cites the same compressed-backup estimate; cold object retrieval is omitted.",
        "ja": "全ストリームが同じ圧縮バックアップ見積もりを引用し、低頻度オブジェクト取得を省いています。"
      },
      "resolution": {
        "en": "Cold retrieval extends the drill to 43 minutes. Outcome: no.",
        "ja": "低頻度ストレージからの取得で43分に延長。結果：いいえ。"
      },
      "outcome": 0,
      "inputs": [
        {
          "id": "A",
          "probability": 0.86,
          "confidence": 0.88,
          "enabled": true
        },
        {
          "id": "B",
          "probability": 0.89,
          "confidence": 0.91,
          "enabled": true
        },
        {
          "id": "C",
          "probability": 0.82,
          "confidence": 0.85,
          "enabled": true
        },
        {
          "id": "D",
          "probability": 0.9,
          "confidence": 0.93,
          "enabled": true
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "F15",
      "slice": "02",
      "scenarioId": "outlier",
      "title": {
        "en": "Scheduler patch: zero duplicate executions?",
        "ja": "スケジューラ修正：重複実行ゼロになるか？"
      },
      "cutoffAt": "2026-08-03T09:00:00Z",
      "resolvedAt": "2026-08-03T18:00:00Z",
      "evidence": {
        "en": "Most forecasts identify a retry race; stream D trusts the happy-path test at high confidence.",
        "ja": "大半は再試行の競合を指摘。Dは正常系テストを高い自信で信頼しています。"
      },
      "resolution": {
        "en": "A network partition produces three duplicate executions. Outcome: no.",
        "ja": "ネットワーク分断で3件の重複実行を確認。結果：いいえ。"
      },
      "outcome": 0,
      "inputs": [
        {
          "id": "A",
          "probability": 0.23,
          "confidence": 0.82,
          "enabled": true
        },
        {
          "id": "B",
          "probability": 0.28,
          "confidence": 0.74,
          "enabled": true
        },
        {
          "id": "C",
          "probability": 0.32,
          "confidence": 0.8,
          "enabled": true
        },
        {
          "id": "D",
          "probability": 0.93,
          "confidence": 0.99,
          "enabled": true
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "F16",
      "slice": "02",
      "scenarioId": "dropout",
      "title": {
        "en": "Partition repair: restore all eight shards?",
        "ja": "分断修復：8シャードすべてを復旧できるか？"
      },
      "cutoffAt": "2026-08-04T09:00:00Z",
      "resolvedAt": "2026-08-04T18:00:00Z",
      "evidence": {
        "en": "Repair leases are active on every shard; two providers return invalid JSON.",
        "ja": "全シャードで修復リースが有効ですが、2プロバイダーが不正なJSONを返します。"
      },
      "resolution": {
        "en": "All eight shards rejoin before 18:00 UTC. Outcome: yes.",
        "ja": "18時UTCまでに8シャードすべてが再参加。結果：はい。"
      },
      "outcome": 1,
      "inputs": [
        {
          "id": "A",
          "probability": 0.81,
          "confidence": 0.9,
          "enabled": true
        },
        {
          "id": "B",
          "probability": 0.74,
          "confidence": 0.81,
          "enabled": false
        },
        {
          "id": "C",
          "probability": 0.75,
          "confidence": 0.78,
          "enabled": true
        },
        {
          "id": "D",
          "probability": 0.31,
          "confidence": 0.67,
          "enabled": false
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "F17",
      "slice": "02",
      "scenarioId": "floor",
      "title": {
        "en": "Reranker audit: p95 below 90 ms?",
        "ja": "再ランキング監査：p95は90ms未満か？"
      },
      "cutoffAt": "2026-08-05T09:00:00Z",
      "resolvedAt": "2026-08-05T18:00:00Z",
      "evidence": {
        "en": "Long documents dominate the new workload; three streams report confidence under 0.1.",
        "ja": "新負荷は長文中心で、3件の自信度は0.1未満です。"
      },
      "resolution": {
        "en": "The fixture run measures p95 at 117 ms. Outcome: no.",
        "ja": "架空の実行結果でp95は117ms。結果：いいえ。"
      },
      "outcome": 0,
      "inputs": [
        {
          "id": "A",
          "probability": 0.71,
          "confidence": 0.09,
          "enabled": true
        },
        {
          "id": "B",
          "probability": 0.68,
          "confidence": 0,
          "enabled": true
        },
        {
          "id": "C",
          "probability": 0.32,
          "confidence": 0.03,
          "enabled": true
        },
        {
          "id": "D",
          "probability": 0.25,
          "confidence": 0.78,
          "enabled": true
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "F18",
      "slice": "02",
      "scenarioId": "all-failed",
      "title": {
        "en": "Tenant isolation: reject every cross-tenant query?",
        "ja": "テナント分離：越境クエリをすべて拒否するか？"
      },
      "cutoffAt": "2026-08-06T09:00:00Z",
      "resolvedAt": "2026-08-06T18:00:00Z",
      "evidence": {
        "en": "The new policy is staged, but no forecast provider produces a validated response.",
        "ja": "新ポリシーは準備済みですが、有効な予測応答は1件もありません。"
      },
      "resolution": {
        "en": "One legacy route accepts a cross-tenant query. Outcome: no.",
        "ja": "1つの旧ルートが越境クエリを受理。結果：いいえ。"
      },
      "outcome": 0,
      "inputs": [
        {
          "id": "A",
          "probability": 0.83,
          "confidence": 0.86,
          "enabled": false
        },
        {
          "id": "B",
          "probability": 0.69,
          "confidence": 0.73,
          "enabled": false
        },
        {
          "id": "C",
          "probability": 0.75,
          "confidence": 0.77,
          "enabled": false
        },
        {
          "id": "D",
          "probability": 0.28,
          "confidence": 0.7,
          "enabled": false
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "F19",
      "slice": "02",
      "scenarioId": "disagreement",
      "title": {
        "en": "Agent budget: complete below 20,000 tokens?",
        "ja": "エージェント予算：2万トークン未満で完了するか？"
      },
      "cutoffAt": "2026-08-07T09:00:00Z",
      "resolvedAt": "2026-08-07T18:00:00Z",
      "evidence": {
        "en": "The plan contains four tools; estimates disagree about the number of retrieval retries.",
        "ja": "計画には4ツールがあり、検索再試行回数の見積もりが分かれています。"
      },
      "resolution": {
        "en": "Repeated retrieval expands the run to 26,440 tokens. Outcome: no.",
        "ja": "検索の繰り返しで26,440トークンを使用。結果：いいえ。"
      },
      "outcome": 0,
      "inputs": [
        {
          "id": "A",
          "probability": 0.68,
          "confidence": 0.73,
          "enabled": true
        },
        {
          "id": "B",
          "probability": 0.72,
          "confidence": 0.8,
          "enabled": true
        },
        {
          "id": "C",
          "probability": 0.28,
          "confidence": 0.91,
          "enabled": true
        },
        {
          "id": "D",
          "probability": 0.31,
          "confidence": 0.84,
          "enabled": true
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "F20",
      "slice": "02",
      "scenarioId": "consensus",
      "title": {
        "en": "New region: reach 99.9% request success?",
        "ja": "新リージョン：リクエスト成功率99.9%に達するか？"
      },
      "cutoffAt": "2026-08-08T09:00:00Z",
      "resolvedAt": "2026-08-08T18:00:00Z",
      "evidence": {
        "en": "All streams use the same health probe, which bypasses the regional authentication path.",
        "ja": "全ストリームがリージョン認証経路を迂回する同じ正常性プローブを使っています。"
      },
      "resolution": {
        "en": "Authentication failures hold success at 98.6%. Outcome: no.",
        "ja": "認証失敗により成功率は98.6%。結果：いいえ。"
      },
      "outcome": 0,
      "inputs": [
        {
          "id": "A",
          "probability": 0.89,
          "confidence": 0.9,
          "enabled": true
        },
        {
          "id": "B",
          "probability": 0.85,
          "confidence": 0.88,
          "enabled": true
        },
        {
          "id": "C",
          "probability": 0.87,
          "confidence": 0.86,
          "enabled": true
        },
        {
          "id": "D",
          "probability": 0.92,
          "confidence": 0.94,
          "enabled": true
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "F21",
      "slice": "02",
      "scenarioId": "outlier",
      "title": {
        "en": "Compaction: reduce disk usage by at least 30%?",
        "ja": "圧縮処理：ディスク使用量を30%以上削減するか？"
      },
      "cutoffAt": "2026-08-09T09:00:00Z",
      "resolvedAt": "2026-08-09T18:00:00Z",
      "evidence": {
        "en": "Tombstones are eligible for removal; one confident stream assumes snapshots still pin them.",
        "ja": "削除マーカーは除去可能ですが、1つの高自信予測はスナップショットによる保持を想定しています。"
      },
      "resolution": {
        "en": "Expired snapshots release space; usage falls 37%. Outcome: yes.",
        "ja": "期限切れスナップショットが解放され、使用量は37%減少。結果：はい。"
      },
      "outcome": 1,
      "inputs": [
        {
          "id": "A",
          "probability": 0.75,
          "confidence": 0.83,
          "enabled": true
        },
        {
          "id": "B",
          "probability": 0.72,
          "confidence": 0.77,
          "enabled": true
        },
        {
          "id": "C",
          "probability": 0.79,
          "confidence": 0.89,
          "enabled": true
        },
        {
          "id": "D",
          "probability": 0.07,
          "confidence": 0.99,
          "enabled": true
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "F22",
      "slice": "02",
      "scenarioId": "dropout",
      "title": {
        "en": "Rate-limit change: keep error rate below 0.5%?",
        "ja": "レート制限変更：エラー率は0.5%未満か？"
      },
      "cutoffAt": "2026-08-10T09:00:00Z",
      "resolvedAt": "2026-08-10T18:00:00Z",
      "evidence": {
        "en": "Burst load is rising; only A and C return usable forecasts before the deadline.",
        "ja": "バースト負荷が上昇。期限までに有効な予測を返すのはAとCだけです。"
      },
      "resolution": {
        "en": "Synchronized client retries push errors to 1.3%. Outcome: no.",
        "ja": "クライアントの同時再試行でエラー率は1.3%。結果：いいえ。"
      },
      "outcome": 0,
      "inputs": [
        {
          "id": "A",
          "probability": 0.66,
          "confidence": 0.7,
          "enabled": true
        },
        {
          "id": "B",
          "probability": 0.79,
          "confidence": 0.85,
          "enabled": false
        },
        {
          "id": "C",
          "probability": 0.26,
          "confidence": 0.88,
          "enabled": true
        },
        {
          "id": "D",
          "probability": 0.3,
          "confidence": 0.73,
          "enabled": false
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "F23",
      "slice": "02",
      "scenarioId": "floor",
      "title": {
        "en": "Log replay: restore every acknowledged event?",
        "ja": "ログ再実行：受理済みイベントをすべて復元するか？"
      },
      "cutoffAt": "2026-08-11T09:00:00Z",
      "resolvedAt": "2026-08-11T18:00:00Z",
      "evidence": {
        "en": "Checksums match the manifest; three streams assign only negligible confidence to their estimates.",
        "ja": "チェックサムは一覧と一致。3件の予測は自信がほぼゼロです。"
      },
      "resolution": {
        "en": "The replay matches every acknowledged event ID. Outcome: yes.",
        "ja": "受理済みの全イベントIDが再実行結果と一致。結果：はい。"
      },
      "outcome": 1,
      "inputs": [
        {
          "id": "A",
          "probability": 0.28,
          "confidence": 0,
          "enabled": true
        },
        {
          "id": "B",
          "probability": 0.34,
          "confidence": 0.05,
          "enabled": true
        },
        {
          "id": "C",
          "probability": 0.73,
          "confidence": 0.07,
          "enabled": true
        },
        {
          "id": "D",
          "probability": 0.81,
          "confidence": 0.82,
          "enabled": true
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "F24",
      "slice": "02",
      "scenarioId": "all-failed",
      "title": {
        "en": "Key rotation: preserve all authenticated sessions?",
        "ja": "鍵更新：認証済みセッションをすべて維持するか？"
      },
      "cutoffAt": "2026-08-12T09:00:00Z",
      "resolvedAt": "2026-08-12T18:00:00Z",
      "evidence": {
        "en": "Dual-key validation is staged; every forecast request times out or fails parsing.",
        "ja": "2鍵での検証は準備済み。予測はすべてタイムアウトか解析失敗です。"
      },
      "resolution": {
        "en": "Session continuity is preserved across the rotation. Outcome: yes.",
        "ja": "鍵更新を通じて全セッションが継続。結果：はい。"
      },
      "outcome": 1,
      "inputs": [
        {
          "id": "A",
          "probability": 0.76,
          "confidence": 0.84,
          "enabled": false
        },
        {
          "id": "B",
          "probability": 0.81,
          "confidence": 0.9,
          "enabled": false
        },
        {
          "id": "C",
          "probability": 0.72,
          "confidence": 0.8,
          "enabled": false
        },
        {
          "id": "D",
          "probability": 0.29,
          "confidence": 0.66,
          "enabled": false
        }
      ]
    }
  ]
}